Match Preview: Arsenal v Napoli; 14th time for the Sweet 16?

Let’s cut to the chase shall we? Win or draw and Arsenal advance to the knockout stages for the 14th consecutive season. Lose by 3 goals or more andwe are consigned to the Community Shield of Europe, the Europa League.

Looking at it with the passionate lense of an Arsenal supporter and it’s hard not see an Arsenal win. Napoli come into this round leaking goals with regularity and with a defense on a run of form that would remind us of us only a few seasons ago. Additionally, they are likely to be without firstchoice keeper Pepe Reina (perpetual karma kicking him in the ass since he pulled the Barca shirt over Cesc’s head) and attacking dynamo and Napoli heartbeat Marek Hamisk is also out.  Throw in the relative ease at which Arsenal dispatched Napoli at the Emirates and you’d be hard pressed not to pick Arsenal immediately.

Problem is that Napoli haven’t lost at home in the Champion’s League yet. They opened this season’s tournament by suprisingly beating 10-men Dortmund and also pounded on group doormat, Marseille.  The Stadio San Paolo is a formidable place to play and not exactly a place you will get all warm and fuzzy visiting. As a matter of fact and with all seriousness, if you don’t have to go there, don’t. it’s not exactly safe. In terms of environment it is also quite intimidating.

Arsenal are going to have to overcome more than a few thousand travelling Napoli supporters. They are going to have to basically quell an entire stadium of rabid Napoli screaming mimis. They are passionate about their football in Naples. I remember living there in the late 80’s based out of Agnano and seeing the endless see of light blue that would trail from the stadium in the heart of the city all the way out to the Tagenziale (the major highway that rings the city down in the bay). Flags waving, cars stopped and singing in the streets well before the match had kicked off. Then there were the endless seranades to some Argentine chap, Diego Maradona.

They are going to be behind their team and they are going to try and make Arsenal uncomfortable. But Arsenal need to come in and play their game. They need to use the  same intense pressure they applied to Napoli at home. They need to turn the tide and make Rafa’s charges uncomfortable on the ball. It was this uncomfortableness that led to the key mistakes that resulted in both of our goals against them in the reverse fixture.

Arsenal shouldn’t and I doubt they will, come into this match with a mind to come out with a draw. Whilst it will do, that mentality can be dangerous. Our defense is solid and hasn’t allowed more than 3 beyond the opener at the Emirates versus Aston Villa. That match also saw the greatest margin of defeat this season – 2 goals. In the other losses – to United and Dortmund they were 1 goal tallies. In other words, the task for Napoli is hard. Not impossible mind you, but hard.

The irony of this situation shouldn’t be lost on any of us and if there is an indicator of a change in Arsenal’s fortunes it is usually us Gunners who need a performance of a lifetime to advance to the next round. Well, as we’ve been saying this is the new Arsenal and for once it is our opponent who has to come with their A++ game.

Regardless of the outcome, it has the makings of a wonderful European night. Especially if at the end we wind up with our 14th straight trip to the sweet 16.

Players to Watch:

Arsenal. Olivier Giroud. Many focus on Aaron Ramsey but the Frenchman is my standout of the season so far. He is strong, combative and even possesses a touch that Cesc would love.

Napoli. Goran Pandev. Simply is defying the odds with his performances of late.

Projected Lineups:
Arsenal: Szczesny; Jenkinson, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Gibbs;  Flamini, Arteta; Ramsey,  Özil, Cazorla; Giroud

Napoli: Rafael; Maggio, Fernandez, Albiol, Reveillere; Dzemaili, Pandev, Inler, Callejon, Insigne; Higuain

Arsenal Injuries and Suspensions:
Oxlade-Chamberlain (knee) Podolski (thigh) Diaby(knee) Sanogo (back) Sagna (thigh)

Head to Head Tournament Stats:

Match Official
Referee: Viktor Kassai (HUN)
Assistant referees:György Ring (HUN) , Vencel Tóth (HUN)
Additional assistant referees: Tamás Bognar (HUN) , Sandor Szabo (HUN)
Fourth official: Robert Kispal (HUN)

Broadcast Information:
US: FoxSoccer 2 Go 2:45 PM EST

UK: SkySports1 1945 GMT/20.45 CET

YAMA Prediction:
Arsenal: 2

Napoli: 2

Match Facts (courtesy UEFA Press Kit)

• Since returning to European competition in 2008 after an absence of 13 years, Napoli had established a formidable home record and went unbeaten in 14 matches before PSV Eindhoven won 3-1 at the Stadio San Paolo in last season’s UEFA Europa League group stage. It was the Serie A side’s first home loss since a December 1994 defeat by Eintracht Frankfurt in the UEFA Cup third round.
• FC Viktoria Plzeň were also victorious in Naples last season, winning 3-0 in the round of 32 en route to a 5-0 aggregate triumph
• Arsenal are in the group stage for the 16th season in a row and have qualified for the second phase 13 years in succession. If they win the group it will be the tenth time they have done so in that time. For the sixth time in eight campaigns they had to negotiate a qualifying round, dispatching Fenerbahçe SK 5-0 on aggregate in the play-offs with Ramsey scoring three times.
•  The Gunners’ three away wins in this season’s competition mean they have lost only one of their last seven away games, with five victories

Manager’s Comments (courtesy UEFA)

Arsène Wenger, manager

The attitude of the players is focused and ambitious. That pleases me very much. We will play our usual game and try to take control of the ball. [Summer transfer target Gonzalo] Higuaín joined Rafa Benítez and has shown he is a great player, but Olivier Giroud has also shown he is a great striker.

Tomorrow is a decider in the Champions League, that is for sure. We played Sunday and we have some players out of shape like [Bacary] Sagna, who is not with us. This is a match we absolutely have to win. The team must stay balanced; we can’t change our way of playing.

The most important thing is to progress from the group. Of course we would like to be first in the group, but to qualify is the most important thing. We won’t be affected by playing in such a hot atmosphere. We have played in stadiums all over Europe so we are used to the pressure exerted by the home supporters.

Rafael Benítez, coach

Arsenal are a quality team who are really quick on the counterattack. We just have to stay balanced against opponents as strong as them. I’m so happy to be in Naples playing in the Champions League. Tomorrow is our last chance to get out of the group, so we will give everything we can. We don’t care about OM v Borussia because we just have to try to win against Arsenal. All our supporters are very proud that we are in the Champions League, so they will be very important to us.

Arsenal have the best coach in the Premier League. Wenger will prepare for this game by looking to make the most of his players’ qualities, and we have to do the same. They are good in possession, but also on the counterattack – we have to play our own game.

[Saturday’s draw] against Udinese left us angry and we will look to recover immediately. We have to try to impose our quality and have confidence in what we do. Of course, we were unlucky to play in a such a competitive group, but we are proud because we can still qualify. The fact we still have this chance going into the last game means we are doing well.