Match Preview: Arsenal v Newcastle United; Starting off 2016 on the Right Foot
Happy New Year Gooners! As we survey the landscape we see our beloved sitting atop the Premier League table (albeit by GD) as we begin the downward descent into the end of season.
Around the press rooms you can hear and see the start of stories saying (and we’re paraphrasing here) – it’s all nice and good but Arsenal have a habit of slipping away in the 2nd half.
Let’s take a quick look at that shall we. First, let’s look at this piece in the Guardian today by Amy Lawrence that looks at Arsenal’s strong performances in the second half of the season. In it she highlights Wenger’s teams second half surges in his first 8 seasons at Arsenal:
“In seven out of his first eight full seasons Arsenal embarked on long undefeated sequences, often including strings of consecutive victories. That brought three titles and four runners-up spots.”
Still not convinced? Don’t take Amy’s word for it. Bobby MacMahon writes this on Forbes Website:
“Despite what you read and hear of the propensity of Arsenal to choke the statistics don’t support that notion. Twice in the last decade Arsenal have dropped positions during the second half of the Premier League season. Three (originally listed as twice) there has been no change but five times Arsenal has improved their position after the halfway point in the season.”
Frankly the evidence is all there. Especially in the last two seasons. We’ve had a woeful start to the season only to surge in the second half and leave us all scratching our heads wondering – what if?
Well, we head in the turn of the 2015/2016 having sorted out our woeful starts to the season, heading into the turn in a very good position and the question is – can Arsenal still turn out a successful second half of the season to capture their first league title since the Invincibles.
It’s interesting to note in Amy’s piece that she highlights the fact that the prolonged runs in the second half of the season are commonly started by a frustratingly poor performance in December. We can look to last year’s 2-0 loss to Southampton and this year’s 4-0 to the same opponent as just such a point. Will that loss be the catalyst for another run to May?
We’ve been bullish on this team since August. While a lot of people worried about the lack of activity in the summer transfer market we saw the single signing of Petr Cech as Wenger righting one big wrong and letting his twice FA Cup Champions build on their success without too much disruption to the side.
The fact is clear, had the November injury bug not ravaged key players – Arsenal had a squad primed to win this league this season.
Yes, the narrative is already being spun that IF Arsenal do win the league it will be because everyone else is poor and Arsenal haven’t improved. I call bollocks on that. Simply because for the first time in a while we haven’t ruined our chances at the title by the end of October. That alone signifies improvement.
Okay, you have to wonder how the top four would look if Chelsea weren’t so poor. But the fact is United and City aren’t changed from last season. City are heavily dependent on the health of an aging squad – albeit a good one – to sustain their run and United weren’t that good last season and eeked into fourth spot. They’ve essentially become what Liverpool became after Benitez left.
Teams like Leicester, Watford and Stoke have all improved and been able to keep key players. They also have managers who are doing well (I will wash my mouth out with soap after that slight praise of Mark Hughes.) No matter what the pundits say the league won’t be won by a team simply because everyone else was poor – it will be won because the team (hopefully Arsenal) who wins it got the most points off of their opponents and finished top of the table.
The run to May begins on Saturday with a visit to the Emirates by beleaguered Newcastle United. For every step the Magpies take in improvement they have consistently taken 3 steps back. They come to the Capital with 11 first team players missing and come to a place that has been a near fortress for Arsenal since they lost on opening day to West Ham.
But Arsenal have to be careful. We have shown in each of our league losses – save Chelsea – that we have a propensity for overlooking our weaker opponents. The biggest worry – at least for me – is that continued mental breakdown that leads to excruciating losses to lesser teams. We’re biggest enemy in that department.
Let’s not confuse patience against a team who drops 10 behind the ball with overlooking an opponent. With most opponents taking a defensive posture against Arsenal there is a patient way we try to approach those games. You know we are overlooking opponents when our passing is off, there aren’t runners in the box, we aren’t busting a gut to defend – in other words – a complete abject performance – see Southampton and West Brom away.
Steve McClaren’s team need points and while they might be easy to look past, Arsenal need to be ruthless to start off the year. The top of the table is congested and any desire to look away from their opponent will only hurt their title aspirations. Given that the second half of the season is fraught with away matches of significance – these matches against struggling teams must be the ones that Arsenal leave no doubt as to the result.
Players to Watch:
Arsenal: Olivier Giroud. He of the diagonal near-post run, loves to play against the barcodes. He’s scored 8 goals in 7 matches and has scored on 5 headers.
Newcastle: Ayoze Perez. Poor guy must be wondering what he has got himself into but he might not be there long as his ability – seen at its best when Pardew was in charge at Tyneside – could mean he departs in the January window
Probable Lineups:
click to enlarge
Injuries and Suspensions:
Arsenal: Sánchez (hamstring), Arteta (calf), Rosicky (knee), Welbeck (knee), Wilshere (leg), Coquelin (knee), Cazorla (knee)
Newcastle: Aarons (ankle), Rivière (knee), Taylor (hamstring), Cissé (groin), Haïdara (knee), Obertan (hamstring), Anita (hamstring), Williamson (hamstring)
Match Officials:
Referee: Anthony Taylor (16M, 60Y, 2R)
Assistant Referees: S Burt, P Kirkup
Fourth Official: S Martin
Broadcast Informtation:
UK: BBC MOTD1 (highlights only)
US: NBC Sports Network 10:00 AM EST
YAMA Prediction:
Arsenal 3 – 0 Newcastle
Match Facts: (Courtesy FourFourTwo.com via Opta Sports)
- In the last 14 Premier League meetings Arsenal have won 11. In the other three games Arsenal have had a player sent off and lost one and drew two.
- There have been 18 goals scored in the last three Premier League meetings between these two sides at the Emirates Stadium.
- Olivier Giroud has scored eight goals in seven Premier League games against the Magpies.
- Giroud has managed five headers on target against Newcastle in the Premier League and scored with all of them.
- Arsenal have now won eight successive Premier League games against Newcastle United.
- Arsene Wenger has won 10 of his 11 meetings with Steve McClaren in the Premier League (L1).
- Newcastle United didn’t manage a single shot on target and just one attempt overall when they played Arsenal at St James Park earlier this season.
- Arsenal head in to 2016 having won the most points (81) and matches (25) in the Premier League in 2015.
- The Gunners have dropped just two points in their last seven Premier League home games, winning 19 of a possible 21 points there in this period.
- Newcastle United have scored just six goals in their last 15 Premier League away trip
