Statistics Pack; Southampton vs Arsenal

Salvo after salvo, the Red and white battery keeps blasting away. Like a creeping barrage blanketing the fixture list, Arsenal keeps rolling along. Having gone a perfect six wins in six during the Europa League group stage – highlighted by the return cult hero of Laurent Koscielny – the Gunners are faced with a visit to St. Mary’s, now under new management.

Southampton welcome Ralph Hasenhüttl, the first Austrian to ever manage in the Premier League as their new headmaster. The former Unsere Burschen international, well known for his success at both Ingolstadt 04 and RasenBallsport Leipzig, comes into a Saints set-up desperate for a rebranding.

The Graz-native is known for his shrewd dealings in smaller transfer markets and a penchant for successfully developing youth players; two factions that make him the ideal manager for a club who found success relying on both those avenues.

Arsenal’s trip to the south coast could indeed be a tricky one. Not only have Saints been somewhat of a hoodoo side for us in recent seasons, but Hasenhüttl will have faced quite a few of our players before in the Bundesliga. Though Southampton sits nineteenth in the table and level on points with Fulham, Unai Emery must still orchestrate a professional performance away from home if we are to come away with all three points.

Arsenal’s South Coast Bugbear

Regardless of their form during the season, a trip to Saints has historically given us somewhat of a headache. Since the 1992-92 inaugural Premier League campaign, Arsenal has recorded a 7-6-6 away record against Saints, and at one period had failed to win there for five visits on the spin. Since their promotion back to the English top flight, our record stands at 2-2-2 at St. Mary’s since 2012-13, being outscored 10-6 in the process.

A bit of relief can be found in Saints’ home form this season, which is poor, to say the least. In front of the home support, the Saints have not gone marching in, failing to register a single three-point haul. Despite that fact, they’ve only tasted defeat twice, which is on par with Tottenham and ahead of the likes of Wolverhampton, Bournemouth, and Leicester. Their defensive record at home is solid as well, having surrendered just ten goals up to this point; good enough to be in the top half of the table in those terms.

The question for Southampton, and for Arsenal, is if Saints’ goalscoring woes at home (6) will continue; only Crystal Palace (5) and Huddersfield (3) have bagged fewer goals at home. For Emery’s troops, we should come in confident despite what history dictates. Our away form is fourth in the table in terms of points accumulation, and only Spurs and Liverpool have managed to score more goals away from home (19) than we have (18). The drawback for us comes by way of our somewhat leaky away defense, which has allowed the most goals of any of the top six sides.

Will Two Be Better Than Three?

Many of the questions in the run-up to kick-off come by way of tactical concerns. The stability in the back – and through the XI as a whole – that we have seen since switching to a back three against Bournemouth will likely continue. In our last four Premier League outings (all with a back three), we have surrendered five goals, four of them coming against Spurs and United. But with Shkodran Mustafi and Sokratis both out through suspension, and Rob Holding out until next season, one wonders if our likely back three – without every first-choice option up till this point – will struggle against a center forward pair.

Despite Hasenhüttl turning to a 4-3-2-1 against Cardiff away from home, his managerial history on the tactics board is heavily reliant on two center forwards. Much of his success at RBL came through Timo Werner and Yussuf Poulsen forming one of the most formidable striking tandems in recent Bundesliga history. In sixty-eight league matches in charge at Leipzig, Hasenhüttl utilized a front two in fifty-five of them; 80% of the time.

With a potential momentum shift on the cards should Saints earn their first home win of the season, it is not out of the realm of probability that the Austrian will turn to his favored deployment, while using a combination of mobile center forwards and versatile forward-thinking midfielders to exploit the flanks considering the nature of our marauding wing-backs.

An Aubameyang-size Problem

When you are struggling for goals the last thing you want to square-off against is the joint-leading scorer in the league. Saints; meet Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. Level with Mohamed Salah on ten goals thus far, Auba has nailed down the starting center forward birth as his own. However, the Gabonese international has been patchy of late.

After crucial goals against Bournemouth and Spurs (2), PEA failed to convert sitters against both United and Huddersfield. Though Arsenal still garnered credible results in both fixtures, the front-man has come under criticism in some circles for being hit-and-miss despite his goal record. Regardless of his up-and-down goal fortunes, his goal tally is just three fewer than Southampton’s total haul over the course of the season. This alone will be a massive cause for concern for the home side.

Another warning sign comes via his goal record against Hasenhüttl himself. In three appearances against RBL, Aubameyang found the back of the net on three occasions despite the pressing nature of the Austrian’s defensive set-up.

Take Nothing for Granted

It is easy to get excited this season, and it certainly is the right sentiment to maintain. Arsenal has progressed in ways that many of us have been eluding to for quite a few seasons now, from targeting of certain types of players to the atmosphere at the Emirates, and air of positivity that is seemingly infectious. What is important to remember is that fortunes in football can change at a moments notice, no matter how good the happy times are.

We have shown already this season that we can struggle against smaller opposition; you need only think back to Huddersfield last weekend for a recent example, one of a few. This may be one of our “easier” Christmas periods in recent memory, but this is not a time to be resting on laurels. Perhaps no greater gift for Arsenal this holiday season is continuing our progression while avoiding the injury bug. Let’s hope we end up on the nice list this year because the last thing we want to see is a pile of coal and the poor form that comes with it.