Match Preview: Arsenal v Newcastle – Beating Geordies again the most important match of year

When it comes to playing a team for a “must win,” Newcastle seems to be Arsenal’s prime candidate. Last season to close out the Premier League and qualify for Champion’s League, Arsenal needed to beat Newcastle. They did and went on to carry on in the Champion’s League much to the chagrin of that other side of North London. Here it is again at the turn of the year and Arsenal must win this to go back to the top of the Premier League table.

Newcastle is also the team that we played this time last year in the 7-3 epic match with Walcott scoring a hat trick and Giroud a brace. Newcastle are one of the inform teams of the moment and people are gushing all over them. People are over the moon with their 5-1 win this past week. However, to me it’s a little misleading, as they scored all their goals after Stoke had been reduced to 9 men. Yes, 9 men.

Arsenal are a different beast to Stoke (isn’t that stating the obvious.) The 6-3 loss to Manchester City aside, Arsenal have been the league’s road warriors. Before the Eithad massacre they’d barely allowed a goal per game on the road. The defense reverted back to norms when it scored a clean sheet versus an unimpressive and impotent Chelsea (home) and won 3-1 against West Ham (away.)

The West Ham match was important for Arsenal as they needed to get a positive vibe here in a December that hasn’t exactly gone as planned. Coming into the festive period we were riding high on a season long run of unexpected performances. Then in a month that saw us draw against this season’s surprise, Everton, lose to Napoli (but still advance) – the wheels really came off against City.

The Chelsea match presented Arsenal with a chance to regain their mojo. But with the torrential rain swept plain that was the Emirates and the 10 men defense the Chavs employed, we had to settle for a draw (as annoying as it was.) After beating West Ham away, Arsenal find themselves with a chance to really regain some momentum as they turn into the downward slope of the season.

The key will be whom Arsene Wenger decides to rest. Olivier Giroud seems to be doing some things right, but the most important thing – finding the back of the net – wrong. The Frenchman has now gone 7 matches without a goal. It’s debatable whether or not Arsene will rest him for this match. Originally, I thought so, but GQGiroud has insinuated via social media he will be playing tomorrow.

Giroud’s starting is a worry to me. It’s clear that his drop in form is due to the amount of games he has played without much rest.  It was bound to happen but without any clear cut alternative, he was always going to get flogged. We are paying the price for a similar mentality in Aaron Ramsey. If stories in the Guardian are to be believed Wenger knew the Welshman was “in the red” fitness-wise and it was a risk for him to continue playing without a rest. Now he faces a long spell out with a thigh strain.

The worry for me is that Giroud can’t be that far away from redlining himself. I worry that without another option currently and my lack of optimism on us buying ANYONE in January, that Giroud will go down and we’ll truly be screwed.

My negative train of thought though is tempered by my absolute joy at the return of both Walcott and Podolski. Walcott has scored 4 goals since he returned. His pace and ability to get behind a defensive line shown us what we’ve really missed over the time he has been gone. He was our leading scorer last season and the way he has returned, it likely won’t be long before he is doing the same this season.

Podolski I know isn’t everyone’s cup of tea but this is a player I absolutely love to watch play. He has his moments that make you just scratch your head but you temper that because if he gets a hold of a shot off of his left foot – it’s either going to severely hurt someone or go into the goal. He is such a clinical shooter and he just loves to play the game and that’s why it’s great to have him back.

What they both bring is the ability to widen play and stretch the field. Before they returned one of the concerns I had was that a lot of teams were forcing us to play narrow. They knew we didn’t have the width we normally did with Theo and iPod. One of the reasons I think we struggled down the road is because when forced into the middle a good defensive effort will limit our chances.

With Theo’s well timed runs and iPod’s crossing ability, it will pull the middle of the pitch open and allow for players like Ozil and Cazorla to have more space to operate. Against West Ham, Cazorla had one of his best matches of the season.  He got better at the expense of Ramsey. With Ramsey off and iPod on, Cazorla went to a central role beside Arteta. With the two wide players stretching the field, Cazorla saw more of ball and grew even more influential in the match.  They say speed kills and it does but for Arsenal’s midfield geniuses having time and space with the ball is even more deadly. We’ve not been poor scorers by any means this season but with iPod and Theo back it only means that there should be increased opportunities for the chances to come from all over the pitch rather than just through the middle.

And they will need this. They will need to pull apart the Newcastle midfield, exploiting gaps between the duo of Tiote and Sissoko to put a constant threat on the Newcastle back 4. Newcastle have been good at home defensively limiting the opposition to an average of 1 goal per game. Arsenal have scored an average of 2.2 goals per game on the road, something will have to give. With the threat of Arsenal’s width and pace I’m hopeful that it’s Newcastle’s defense.

I’m going for an Arsenal win here because I think that they will be up for it. Sure, they could be up for it all they want but it’s Newcastle and as we know, nothing is ever a given there. For example, we often don’t get the rub of the calls at Newcastle. Lee Probert is on duty as ref and from his stats it’s fair to say he lets the game play on. He doesn’t call many fouls only issuing 10 yellows this season. He has pulled out the red twice and issued two PKs this season which seems a little worrisome given that it equals a red for every 5 yellows. That means the likes of Rosicky and Jack have to keep their firecracker temper in check it could be a dangerous outing for Arsenal.

This is an important match as we said it carries us back to the top of the table and it begins the slow run down the season hill on a positive.

Probable Lineups:

Injuries & suspensions:
Arsenal:  Ramsey (thigh)  Diaby (knee),  Oxlade-Chamberlain (knee), Sanogo (back)

Newcastle: R Taylor (knee)

Match Official:
Referee: Lee Probert (Matches: 9. R2 Y10 PK 2)
Assistants: Hussin, Scholes
Fourth Official: Marriner

Head to Head:

Broadcast Information:
US: NBC Sports Network 8:30 AM EST

UK:  Sky Sports 1 13.30 GMT

YAMA Prediction:
Arsenal: 3

Newcastle: 1

Match Facts (courtesy FourFourTwo)

• Arsenal have won the most Premier League points in 2013, and their current 79 point tally in the year cannot be surpassed by any other side.
• Yoan Gouffran has scored in five consecutive Premier League home games for Newcastle United.
• Alongside Spurs, Arsenal have won the most points away from home in the Premier League this season (19).
• Olivier Giroud has only scored one of his 18 Premier League goals outside of London, but this solitary strike came in the north-east (at Sunderland) earlier this season.
• That 7-3 game was these two sides’ final game of 2012 and Newcastle have conceded 24 goals in their last seven final PL games of the year.
• Arsenal have lost only one of their last 17 final games of the year (0-1 to Sheffield United in 2006)
• Newcastle have conceded a total of 14 goals in their last five Premier League games against Arsenal.
• Arsenal enjoyed a 7-3 win against Newcastle last season (at home), one of only six games in Premier League history to see 10+ goals (Before Dec 21st).
• This fixture saw the only four goal comeback to date in Premier League history, when Newcastle came back from 0-4 down to draw 4-4 in February 2011
• Arsenal have lost just one of their last 12 Barclays Premier League games at St James Park (D7 W4)