Match Preview: Arsenal v Bayern Munich; There is a Glint of Hope for Arsenal

“It’s twin Bavarian peaks – history and the stats, that Arsenal have to overcome.”

“Arsenal are looking at the bleak prospect of another early knock out exit.”

“It’s mission impossible”

Stop me when you think you’ve heard all the available cliche’s going into today’s 2nd leg Champion’s League tie.  The gist is that well Arsenal supporters – we don’t have a chance in hell of overcoming this deficit against “the world’s best team.” And it is coming from pundits, neutrals and even corners of our own supporters.

Now, I am a realist. I know that the match today presents as big a challenge as you could ask for. I know that we have challenges in the availability of players and challenges of playing one of the strongest squads in Europe today.

But I am also a supporter and as a supporter I always hold a modicum of hope that anything can happen. When we traveled to the Allianz last season my hope is pretty much the same – go out work for the best result  but don’t let the match get to the point where it is a nightmare scenario. Remember, we were coming off the loss to Tottenham and major changes in the squad were in the offing. It was an epically low time. But then the match happened. Arsenal snatched two goals and put pressure on the eventual tournament winners – who only managed to get through on away goals.

So as we head into this match we all should keep in mind the realities of the situation but we should never not hope our boys can do this. There is ample enough talent in the squad to offer Bayern questions. Before Szczesny’s sending off, we provided enough of a challenge to Bayern that they looked taken back with our attack.  They hadn’t been challenged like this in their league or in their Champion’s League group stage. Sure, they lost to City but the group was already tied up.

It will be interesting to see which lineup Wenger rolls out there today. He actually has some options – albeit limited ones. Does he go with the Flamteta axis in the middle of the pitch. Does Podolski get a nod or does Oxlade-Chamberlain. In the absense of Wilshere and Ramsey, the Ox is getting a turnout and he is showing that like the players he is slotting in for – he can offer a dynamic to Arsenal that they sorely need.

In the first leg, Arsenal used him efficiently and he tested the Bayern left back and it’s why I think Wenger puts him in it.

People want us to focus on FA Cup. Sound, rationale thinking as it is likely our best chance of silverware. They argue there is no merit in going out with a strong side and losing. Andrew Magnan on ESPNFC rightly points out though that Wenger doesn’t view things that way. For Wenger the best chance for Arsenal is the next match. I wholeheartedly agree with that insight and it’s why you have to expect Wenger to roll out the best squad he can.

I don’t think you see Sanogo start again. Wenger is going to want an early goal and Giroud offers our best chance of doing that. Sanogo was solid in the first leg but he is still an unfinished product and needs more time to develop into the forward we hope he can become. There are some lingering readiness questions in Gibbs and Koscielny but if they are fit you know they play. Fabianski is in goal as Szczesny is suspended but given how good Fabs was last year – I’m okay with that.

The key will be to test Bayern right away again. Their crowd will be behind them. They got their own version of the invincibles running rampant in the Bundesliga. They’re not favorites in the Champion’s League for no reason. But as we showed in the first leg we can raise some questions and if Özil’s penalty goes in – that match at the Emirates has a different feel to it. We shouldn’t discount something special happening. We shouldn’t lose site of reality either. But how I’ve seen some given up on this tournament so easily is shocking.

And remember this:

• The Gunners have won on three of their last five visits to Germany, with the other two ending in draws.
• Arsenal are the last team to keep a clean sheet against Bayern Munich in the Champions League
• Arsenal have only kept 3 clean sheets in their last 27 away games in the Champions League, but the last 2 shutouts have been in Germany (vs Bayern in March 2013 and Dortmund in November 2013)
• The last three Champions League games that Bayern Munich have failed to win at the Allianz Arena have all been against English clubs : 1-1 after extra-time against Chelsea in May 2012, 0-2 v Arsenal in March 2013 and 2-3 v Manchester City in December 2013.
• The Gunners have never gone three straight games without a goal in the Champion’s League.

Players to Watch:
Arsenal. Mesut Özil. The German has a lot to prove after the last leg. Given how up he was for the FA Cup – he could have a big part to play.

Bayern. Franck Ribery. Not available in the last leg, he adds a whole new dimension for the Gunners to be concerned about

Projected Lineups:
Arsenal: Szczesny; Sagna, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Gibbs;  Flamini, Arteta; Oxlade-Chamberlain,  Özil, Cazorla; Giroud

Bayern: Neuer, Rafinha, Dante, Boateng, Alaba; Lahm, Thiago, Gotze; Robben, Ribery; Mandzukic

Arsenal Injuries and Suspensions:
Szczesny (suspended – 1) Ramsey (thigh), Walcott (knee) Diaby (everything)

Head to Head Tournament Stats:

Match Official
Referee: Svein Oddvar Moen (NOR)
Assistant referees: Kim Thomas Haglund (NOR) , Frank Andås (NOR)
Additional assistant referees: Ken Henry Johnsen (NOR) , Svein-Erik Edvartsen (NOR)
Fourth official: Leif Erik Opland (NOR)

Broadcast Information:
US: FoxSoccer 2 Go 3:45 PM EST

UK: ITV 1 1945 GMT/20.45 CET

YAMA Prediction:
Arsenal 1 – 2 Bayern

Manager’s Comments:

Arsène Wenger

We are focused on putting on a great performance. The history, with last year, is important. We know we can do it this time because we already did it last year. It is a possible task for us. My team has quality and ambition. With a top performance we can do it. It would be absolutely great to win. A big win would set us up for the last few months of the season.

Statistics are against us. But we have already won 5-1 against Milan. And we have won everywhere in Europe. We scored two goals in the last few minutes against Everton [on Saturday], so we can just focus on our game, without getting nervous. It would be helpful to score early, but we don’t have to. We can score later on too.

Bayern are the best team on the continent at the moment, but I am confident. It is difficult to say if Bayern are better this year than last. We will see. But of course, they have the quality to be there right at the top. Performances win you games, not being favourites.

Tomorrow we will have four German players, [Serge] Gnabry included. [Lukas] Podolski is in good shape again, [Per] Mertesacker has become a great player in England and [Mesut] Özil is a great talent, as he will show tomorrow.

Pep Guardiola

Well, of course 2-0 was a good result for us. Though it is dangerous, we have a good chance to go through. We have to bring our ideas to fruition. The Champions League is more important than the Bundesliga and we have to do our best.

The main thing for us is avoiding conceding a goal. We have to play with the mentality that we want to win the game. We will play in a way that makes sure that we want to win the game. They have very good midfielders and you really have to do well against them. We have to win this game, it doesn’t matter what we did in the first leg. This is what we have to concentrate on.

Wenger is a coach with a lot of experience. He knows everything at Arsenal. He knows the players. Arsenal are always in the last 16 in Champions League. They buy very good players. He works with young guns and those players always get better and better. He is one of the best coaches in the world.

Arsenal built a new stadium, that is expensive and they always sold their best players. Even so the quality of the squad is very, very good. In the last minutes of the first leg they were much better then us. Probably the best opponents we had this year.

Tomorrow is just one game, like a final – and the players put everything on the field and I expect the best performance from my players and the best from Arsenal.