Arsenal vs Chelsea Carabao Cup Semi-Final Preview: Gunners Hold 3–2 Aggregate Lead

Arsenal host Chelsea at the Emirates Stadium with a place in the Carabao Cup final at stake. A 3–2 first-leg win at Stamford Bridge gives Arsenal the advantage, but not comfort. Avoid defeat and the tie is theirs. A one-goal Chelsea win pushes it to extra time. Anything more ends the run.

The first leg had enough chaos for a full tie. Arsenal struck three times through Ben White, Viktor Gyokeres, and Martin Zubimendi. Chelsea stayed alive through an Alejandro Garnacho double. Now the task is clearer to define than to execute. Control the game. Avoid the one moment that flips the stadium mood. Make Chelsea chase for long stretches, then punish the gaps that appear.

Arsenal arrive as league leaders. Chelsea arrive with momentum under Liam Rosenior. That combination usually produces a match with two distinct phases. An early Chelsea push to reset the aggregate, followed by Arsenal deciding whether this becomes a football match or a survival exercise.

Head-to-head history

Arsenal are unbeaten in the last nine meetings with Chelsea across competitions, with six wins and three draws. Chelsea have lost their last three away games at Arsenal in all competitions.

There is one detail worth keeping in your head even if you hate it. Chelsea’s only wins against Mikel Arteta came at the Emirates, in December 2019 and August 2021. The recent run is real. The tie still demands a serious performance.

Current form and momentum

Arsenal’s recent run across all competitions is solid. Four wins, one draw, one loss across the last six. They scored 15 and conceded eight in that stretch. They scored first in five of those six matches.

The weekend league win at Leeds matters for more than confidence. It re-established rhythm. It removed the “are they wobbling” chatter. It also showed Arsenal can still land a clean, ruthless away performance.

Chelsea have won five of their last six in all competitions. The one loss came in the first leg of this tie. They have shown a very specific habit in recent wins. They keep finding a way back, including comebacks against West Ham and Napoli. That should shape Arsenal’s mindset late in the game. Chelsea do not stop asking questions in the last 15 minutes.

Tactical preview

Chelsea under Rosenior

Rosenior has leaned into a 4-2-3-1. The intention is aggressive possession with risk baked in. Chelsea try to break lines early through the centre, then accelerate wide. The wide threats matter most here. Pedro Neto and Alejandro Garnacho are encouraged to run at full-backs. That is where Chelsea can tilt the pitch and force Arsenal’s wide defenders into long, repeated 1v1 defending.

Chelsea’s finishing has been efficient in league play, with one of the better conversion rates in the division. They have been even sharper with big chances, close to a 50% success rate.

Dead balls matter. Chelsea have already hurt Arsenal from corners, with deliveries aimed into the near-post zone. Arsenal will need clean roles in the first contact zone, not vague “attack it” energy.

Arsenal’s likely approach

Arsenal’s incentive is obvious. Do not turn this into a track meet. They do not need to win the night to win the tie. They need to manage risk better than Chelsea across 90 minutes.

That points to three priorities.

First, protect central zones in the first 20 minutes. Chelsea want an early goal to change the aggregate math. Arsenal should expect pressure, expect quick switches, expect Chelsea full-backs stepping high.

Second, make Chelsea defend transitions. Chelsea’s wide aggression can leave space behind the first press. Arsenal’s best moments may come after the first pass out of pressure, when Chelsea’s midfield line is stretched and their back line has to run towards its own goal.

Third, game management after the 75th minute. Arsenal concede a large share of their home goals late. SoccerStats flagged 41% of the goals Arsenal concede arriving after the 75th minute. That is a real warning for a tie where Chelsea have already shown late scoring in the first leg and late turning points in recent wins.

This is the match where your substitutions cannot be “fresh legs” for the sake of it. They need to solve a clear problem: wide defending fatigue, second-ball control, or ball security in the final third.

Key players

Arsenal

Viktor Gyokeres has already scored in this tie. He has scored four times in his last six matches. His role is bigger than goals in this game. Arsenal need him to turn clearances into possessions. They need him to occupy centre-backs so Chelsea cannot play with a high line and constant front-foot confidence.

Martin Zubimendi has already delivered in the first leg with a goal. In a match like this, his value is control. Arsenal will need someone who keeps the ball moving under pressure, keeps passing lanes open, and helps the team reset its shape after transitions.

Declan Rice is the stabiliser when games get messy. Chelsea’s double pivot and the 10 space can get crowded fast. Rice’s defensive range and timing can kill the “one extra pass” Chelsea want to play through the middle.

Ben White matters at both ends. He scored in the first leg. He can also be part of how Arsenal manage Chelsea’s wide threat, either as a right-back option or a defensive game-state tool.

Chelsea

Alejandro Garnacho is the obvious danger. He scored twice in the first leg and keeps driving to goal. His threat is direct and repeatable, not reliant on a single pattern.

Chelsea’s wide pace in general is the lever they keep pulling. Neto’s running can pin Arsenal’s full-backs deeper than Arsenal want.

Set pieces deserve their own call-out. Arsenal’s defending at the near post and second ball areas can decide the night faster than any long tactical debate.

Injury and suspension updates

Arsenal

• Mikel Merino is out. He will undergo surgery on his foot after picking up the injury against Manchester United.
• Bukayo Saka will be assessed. He pulled up in the warm-up ahead of the 4-0 win at Leeds.
• Max Dowman is unavailable through injury.

Chelsea

• Jamie Gittens is out after going off against West Ham in the first half.
• Estevao is a possible miss for personal reasons.
• Goalkeeper Filip Jorgensen is a doubt.
• Other probable Chelsea absences include Levi Colwill, Tosin Adarabioyo, Dario Essugo, and Romeo Lavia.

Statistical breakdown

Arsenal
They have played 24 league matches with 16 wins, five draws, and three losses. Their points per game is 2.21.
Home league record is nine wins, two draws, one loss from 12. Away record is seven wins, three draws, two losses from 12.

Chelsea
They have played 24 league matches with 11 wins, seven draws, and six losses. Their points per game is 1.67.
Home league record is six wins, three draws, three losses. Away record is five wins, four draws, three losses.

Goals and defensive control

• Arsenal score 1.92 goals per league match and concede 0.71. They keep clean sheets in 50% of league matches. They fail to score in 12%.
• Chelsea score 1.75 and concede 1.13. They keep clean sheets in 38% of matches. They fail to score in 8%.

Game state indicators

• Arsenal score first in 62% of league matches. Chelsea score first in 54%.
• Arsenal spend 40% of match time leading and 10% trailing. Chelsea spend 30% leading and 19% trailing.

That tells you the most important story of the tie. Arsenal are more familiar with controlling games from in front. Chelsea are more familiar with playing from behind.

Protecting a lead

• Arsenal’s lead-defending rate is 84%. They have taken the lead 19 times and conceded an equaliser three times.
• Chelsea’s lead-defending rate is 61%. They have taken the lead 18 times and conceded an equaliser seven times.

Chasing an equaliser

• Arsenal’s equalising rate is 70%. When opponents take the lead against Arsenal, it has happened 10 times. Arsenal have equalised seven times.
• Chelsea’s equalising rate is 54%. Opponents have taken the lead 13 times. Chelsea have equalised seven times.

Recent league form signal

• Arsenal’s points per game across the last eight is 2.13, slightly down from their season 2.21. Their goals for ticks up to 2.00 across that span. Their goals against rises to 0.88.
• Chelsea’s points per game across the last eight is 1.50, down from their season 1.67. Their goals for rises to 1.88. Their goals against rises to 1.50.

Chelsea’s recent results show wins, yet the last-eight profile hints at a trade. More attacking output, more defensive leakage. That is the type of profile that can create chaos in a cup tie. It can also hand Arsenal chances if Arsenal stay calm and play the next pass.

Prediction and closing thoughts

Chelsea will likely push the tempo early. Their route back starts with scoring first. Arsenal’s first job is to keep the match quiet for 15 to 20 minutes. No cheap set pieces. No forced passes into traffic. No emotional decisions after a lost duel.

After that, the game should open in Arsenal’s favour. Chelsea’s push creates space. Arsenal have enough control in midfield to turn phases of pressure into phases of possession, then into transitions that test Chelsea’s rest defence.

The biggest risk for Arsenal is the late window. The data points and the first leg both underline it. Arsenal concede a notable share of goals after the 75th minute. Chelsea keep scoring late. Arsenal need a proactive plan for that stretch, not a desperate one.

A reasonable outcome is a draw on the night, with Arsenal advancing on aggregate.

Arsenal 1-1 Chelsea. Arsenal advance 4-3 on aggregate.