Arsenal vs Olympiacos: Can Arteta’s Side Maintain European Home Dominance and Bury Old Ghosts?

Arsenal return to the Emirates for Champions League duty and a reunion with a familiar opponent. Olympiacos know this ground well, and their past visits still linger in the memory of home supporters. The competition format has evolved and the stakes early in October are moderate, but the assignment remains clear: win at home and build momentum in the league phase.

The Gunners opened their campaign with a composed 2-0 victory away at Athletic Club, while Olympiacos were held to a goalless draw by debutants Pafos despite playing most of the match against ten men. Arsenal arrive with depth, control, and strong home form. Olympiacos bring belief from past success in North London but face a very different side now under Mikel Arteta.

Head-to-head snapshot

These clubs have met often since 2009. The split is even across 12 meetings. Six wins each. Draws have not shown up in this fixture. The last meeting came in 2021 in the Europa League. Olympiacos won 1-0 at the Emirates, though Arsenal went through on aggregate thanks to a 3-1 win in Piraeus.

Key notes that shape the mood:

• Arsenal won the first three home Champions League meetings.

• Olympiacos have won the last three trips to N5.

• The most famous Arsenal response came in Athens in 2015. Olivier Giroud’s hat-trick secured a 3-0 win and progression after a 3-2 defeat in London.

That history matters for headlines. It should not drive the game plan. This Arsenal side defends better, controls games better, and rotates with more quality than the versions that slipped here in past seasons.

Current form and momentum

Arsenal

• 2-0 away at Athletic Club on Matchday 1.

• 1-1 vs Man City, 2-0 at Port Vale, 2-1 at Newcastle in the league and cups.

• Five clean sheets in eight across all competitions this season.

• Strong home record in Europe’s league phase. Thirteen straight home wins in the group or league phase, the last ten without conceding.

Patterns stand out. Arsenal close games well. The bench shifts tempo. Late goals at Bilbao and Newcastle fit that trend. Defensive structure keeps chance quality against at a low level. That travel-heavy start is over for a spell. October gives home rhythm.

Olympiacos

• 0-0 vs Pafos on Matchday 1. Pafos played with ten men for more than an hour.

• Top of the Greek Super League through five games.

• Late winner vs Levadiakos at the weekend.

• European trend is mixed. Two wins in the last 21 Champions League league-phase games. Ten straight away losses at this stage.

Domestically they carry weight. In Europe, chance creation drops, and away resilience has cracked often. Mendilibar’s team works hard, uses width, and keeps shape. Cutting edge fades against higher-level defensive blocks.

Tactical preview

Arsenal will likely shape play from a 4-3-3 that shifts into a 3-2-5 when settled in possession. Regardless of who starts, the intent is to control territory rather than chase quick breaks. One fullback often tucks in to form a back three, while a holding midfielder — usually Rice or Zubimendi — links play from deep and shields transitions. The eights push between the lines to create passing lanes, and whoever fills the advanced role looks to raise tempo with quick combinations and disguised final balls. Circulation is deliberate, drawing the block to one side before switching to the far half space for cleaner entries.

The right side remains a key attacking lane. Saka shapes much of the play there, taking the ball to feet, riding pressure, and opening lanes for underlaps or inside runs from the supporting midfielder or fullback. If defenders force him outside, he can still drive the byline to create corners and second-phase chances — a pattern that suits Gabriel’s movement on set pieces. The left is built to stretch the line; Martinelli can run directly at his marker to push them back and free a late-arriving midfielder at the edge of the box. If Arteta rotates and Trossard features, expect more quick one-twos and cutbacks from that flank.

Out of possession, Arsenal aim to stay compact and aggressive right after turnovers. Fullbacks or midfielders lead the first squeeze, shutting lanes into the number ten space and forcing play wide. This counterpress keeps transitions low-quality. When protecting a lead, the line can drop slightly to guard the central zone and invite lower-value crosses for the centre-backs to clear.

Olympiacos under Mendilibar bring a recognisable identity. They start in a 4-2-3-1 and drop into a narrow 4-5-1 block without the ball. The double pivot closes the middle and steers attacks toward the wings. They build their own play wide, sending fullbacks forward one at a time and leaning heavily on the left, where Ortega and Podence combine to overload before early crosses. El Kaabi targets the channel between centre-back and fullback, making front-post runs when service comes in.

In London, expect Olympiacos to be patient. They will try to slow Arsenal’s right side by doubling Saka near the touchline and tracking underlaps. Once they clear their lines, the first ball forward will look for El Kaabi into space. From there they seek field position, support with wide runners, and send quick balls across goal. If the match remains tight late on, they tend to increase crossing volume and rely on fresh wingers to force second-ball chances.

Two control points could decide the contest. One is midfield security: if Arsenal’s holding player cuts supply to Chiquinho and denies clean pockets, Olympiacos lose their most reliable route into counters. The other is wide isolation: consistent one-on-one wins from Saka or Martinelli break the Greek block and lead to cutbacks or set pieces. If Arsenal control those areas, the match should lean toward sustained pressure and a shot profile that suits the home side.

Match-ups that tilt the game

• Saka vs Ortega. If Saka isolates the left back in space, Arsenal create repeat entries. Quick one-twos with White break the line.

• Rice vs Hezze. Control of the middle third sets the shot map. Rice can step in front of the ten and stop transitions at the source.

• Gabriel on set plays vs Retsos and Pirola. The aerial duel dictates Arsenal’s dead-ball ceiling. Movement, not height alone, wins here.

• Martinelli vs Rodinei. Direct pace against an older fullback can draw fouls and force early bookings. That swings the flow toward the left.

Key players to watch

Arsenal

• Bukayo Saka. Fitness looks strong. Receives under pressure, protects, then releases the next runner. Shot volume rises when he inverts.

• Martin Ødegaard. Return from a shoulder issue. Even a 30-minute spell lifts chance quality by shifting defenders with disguise and tempo changes.

• Declan Rice. The stabilizer. Ball recoveries, fast diagonals, and decisive entries for late runners.

• Viktor Gyökeres. Three goals at home since joining. Attacks the near post with conviction. Pins center backs to create room for wingers.

Olympiacos

• Ayoub El Kaabi. Prolific in European ties for the club. Times the front-post and back-shoulder runs well.

• Daniel Podence. The most direct wing threat. Beats the first man. Draws help. Opens the trail lane for the ten.

• Chiquinho. Arrives late at the edge of the box. Clean shot off limited touches.

• Paschalakis or Tzolakis. Whichever keeper starts must handle aerial traffic and low cutbacks through crowds.

Injury and suspension updates

Arsenal

• Out: Kai Havertz, Gabriel Jesus, Noni Madueke.

• Piero Hincapié is unlikely to feature.

• Martin Ødegaard returned with an assist off the bench at Newcastle and could start.

• Rotation candidates: Ben White at right back, Myles Lewis-Skelly at left back for minutes management.

• Predicted XI: Raya; White, Mosquera, Gabriel, Lewis-Skelly; Zubimendi, Ødegaard, Merino; Saka, Gyökeres, Martinelli.

Olympiacos

• Out of UEFA squad: Rémy Cabella, Yusuf Yazıcı.

• Injuries: Roman Yaremchuk and Lorenzo Scipioni remain absent.

• Predicted XI: Paschalakis; Rodinei, Retsos, Pirola, Ortega; Garcia, Hezze; Strefezza, Chiquinho, Podence; El Kaabi.

Squad depth gives Arteta options. Mendilibar arrives near full strength for this competition window, minus a few omitted creators.

Statistical insights

Arsenal team trends

• Thirteen straight home wins in European league-phase matches.

• Ten straight home clean sheets in those games.

• Eight clean sheets in the last twelve Champions League league-phase matches.

• Concede few shots from prime central zones. xGC sits under 1.0 per match across the last two campaigns.

• Set-piece goals remain a steady source. Gabriel leads the center-back group for headed xG.

Olympiacos team trends

• Two wins in the last twenty-one Champions League league-phase matches.

• Ten straight away losses in the league phase since 2015.

• Seven clean sheets in the last ten European fixtures across competitions, driven by deep blocks outside the Champions League.

• Domestic late-goal pattern. Ten league goals this season, all in second halves, with seven in the final quarter-hour.

Head-to-head notes

• Six wins apiece across twelve meetings.

• Olympiacos have won the last three at the Emirates.

• Arsenal have won five straight league-phase games in this competition.

Shot and chance profile expectation for this match

• Arsenal to post higher possession, with 58 to 65 percent likely.

• Arsenal to produce a shot count in the mid-teens with 5 to 7 on target.

• Olympiacos to create 6 to 9 shots, with 2 to 3 on target, driven by crosses and second balls.

What decides it on the night

This match will hinge on a few clear control points. The first is the opening goal. When Arsenal play with a lead at home, they become almost impossible to open up. Their back line squeezes space, the midfield drops into efficient rest defence, and transitions become lethal. Olympiacos know this from experience; chasing the game at the Emirates often leads to stretched lines and quick punishment.

Set pieces are another likely decider. Arsenal’s delivery under Arteta has become sharp and varied, and Gabriel is a constant danger on corners. Against an older, less mobile Olympiacos defence, one well-executed routine could break the stalemate if open play proves stubborn.

Depth will also matter. Arsenal’s bench has shifted several games already this season, with late substitutions turning control into goals. Fresh wide runners and attacking eights can force errors once the Greek block tires in the final 20 minutes.

Discipline in the wide areas will shape the flow too. Drawing an early booking against either fullback limits Olympiacos’ ability to double up or step out aggressively. If Arsenal can keep Podence pinned deep on the left and restrict Ortega’s overlaps, the visitors lose their most reliable outlet.

Combine these factors and the pattern is clear: strike first, stay alert on dead balls, use depth to stretch a tiring opponent, and keep their wide threats from breathing. Do those things, and Arsenal’s superior structure should carry the night.

Practical keys for Arsenal

• Pin Podence deep early. Force him to defend long sequences.

• Keep Rice central on rest-defense locks. No easy outlets to the ten.

• Target back-post crosses on second-phase attacks. Martinelli vs weak-side fullback can win those actions.

• Manage the game state at 1-0. No cheap counters. Use touchline traps and quick restarts to keep tempo where you want it.

Practical keys for Olympiacos

• Slow Arsenal’s right-side rhythm. Double Saka at the touchline. Keep White’s underlap marked.

• Hit El Kaabi early into the channels. Make the center backs turn.

• Protect zone 14 at all costs. Deny wall passes from Ødegaard into Gyökeres.

• Lean on late subs for width and crossing volume if the score stays tight.

Prediction and closing thoughts

The matchup leans Arsenal. Form, underlying defensive stability, and home trends in Europe point in the same direction. Olympiacos bring belief from past trips and strong domestic habits. Champions League away form tells a different story. Mendilibar’s block can frustrate for spells. Arsenal’s control should stretch that block with time, then create the high-value looks that tilt the score.

Prediction
Arsenal 2-0 Olympiacos. One goal before the hour. One late. Clean sheet intact.

Expect a professional job, not a spectacle. The priority is three points, minutes management, and no new fitness issues. Win at home, move to six points, and keep the league-phase path on track.