Arsenal vs West Ham Preview: Can the Gunners Keep Their Home Momentum Alive?

Arsenal return to the Emirates aiming to keep pressure on the top of the Premier League table. West Ham arrive with a new manager in Nuno Espírito Santo, a poor start in the league, and a recent history of upsetting Arsenal in this stadium. The stakes are simple. Three points keep Mikel Arteta’s side on track. Anything less helps a struggling West Ham build a platform.

Arsenal carry strong statistical markers into this game. Their expected goals against per match sits at 0.65, the lowest figure in the league. Home scoring sits at 3.00 goals per match across the early schedule. West Ham’s away scoring rate is 1.33 with 1.33 conceded. The contrast points to control for the hosts if they maintain recent standards.

There is context that tempers any complacency. West Ham won on both of their last two league trips to the Emirates. The visitors tend to find a way in this fixture when the margins are tight. That said, the current form line favors Arsenal by a distance.

Head-to-Head History

• Arsenal have lost the last two home league meetings with West Ham.

• West Ham seek a third straight away league win at Arsenal. Only Manchester City have done that to Arsenal in the Premier League era.

• Across all league meetings, Arsenal hold the long-term advantage, but the recent sample in North London tilts toward West Ham in single-game moments.

Expect a tight opening period. The memory of those results will shape Arsenal’s approach, especially in the first phase on set plays and restarts where West Ham found value.

Current Form and Momentum

Arsenal

• Six wins in the last eight Premier League matches. The only slips were a 1-0 defeat to Liverpool and a 1-1 draw with Manchester City.

• Three straight wins across competitions heading into this match, including a 2-0 Champions League home result and a late 2-1 win at Newcastle.

• Home league record across the wider run is strong. Four defeats in 42 league matches at the Emirates, with West Ham accounting for two of those losses.

West Ham

• One win across the last seven in all competitions before Nuno’s arrival.

• A 1-1 draw at Everton in his first game. All of their last ten league points came away from home.

• London derbies remain a problem. West Ham have more derby losses than any other club in Premier League history, with eight defeats in the last eleven such matches.

Form lines suggest Arsenal will see most of the ball. West Ham’s best recent performances came away from London Stadium in tight, counter-heavy games, which fits the likely pattern here.

Tactical Preview

Arsenal should look like a 4-3-3 in possession, with full backs adjusting height based on the angle of the attack. On the left, Riccardo Calafiori can push high to deliver early crosses or step inside to help circulation. On the right, Ben White or Jurriën Timber balance the structure and protect against counterattacks. Declan Rice and Martín Zubimendi control the middle. Rice often drives into the left half space to connect with Calafiori and Gabriel Martinelli, while Martin Ødegaard finds pockets to the right of center to combine with Bukayo Saka and the right back. With Viktor Gyökeres up top, Arsenal carry more depth running behind and a stronger near-post presence for crosses and corners. Wide forwards arrive at the back post and attack second balls, which suits the team’s set-piece focus.

West Ham under Nuno opened with a compact 4-1-4-1 at Everton. The line of four shifted as a unit to keep the central lane crowded, and Soungoutou Magassa screened passes into the striker. In transition they moved the first pass to Lucas Paquetá, then looked early for Jarrod Bowen into the channel behind the opposition left back. Crysencio Summerville carried from the opposite wing to stretch the field. With Niclas Füllkrug pinning center backs, the visitors tried to create cutbacks and near-post finishes rather than long spells of possession. That blueprint fits a trip to the Emirates. The visitors will accept long stretches without the ball, defend the edge of their box, and hit diagonals toward Bowen when space opens.

The overall picture points to territorial control for Arsenal with steady attacks from the right side, frequent switches to the left for early deliveries, and a heavy dose of rehearsed restarts. West Ham’s best moments come when they break the first press cleanly, reach Paquetá’s feet, and release Bowen before Arsenal can rebuild their rest defense.

Key Players

Arsenal

• Bukayo Saka
  On the cusp of his 200th Premier League appearance and one goal involvement from a century in the competition. He attacks the inside right channel and the back post on corners. His duel with Malick Diouf decides how often Arsenal can create clean looks from that side.

• Martin Ødegaard
  The creative fulcrum. Finds pockets between the lines and tees up cutbacks to the penalty spot. If West Ham’s midfield line over-shifts to him, space opens for Rice and Martinelli to attack the far side.

• Gabriel Magalhães
  The prime set-piece threat and an anchor against aerial deliveries toward Füllkrug. His timing on near-post runs from corners often creates flicks and chaos. Fitness was a talking point after a midweek knock, but the expectation is availability.

• Riccardo Calafiori
  Aggressive with the ball and a key crosser from the left. The balance between his forward surges and Bowen’s threat behind him is a live tactical question.

West Ham

• Jarrod Bowen
  West Ham’s best finisher and transition runner. Tracks back to help against Calafiori, then sprints into the lane behind him. Any Arsenal turnover in midfield becomes a direct route to Bowen in space.

• Lucas Paquetá
  Handles the first pass out of pressure. Looks for quick wall passes into Bowen and Summerville. Fouls drawn in the attacking third could give West Ham their own set-piece platform.

• Soungoutou Magassa
  Screening midfielder responsible for blocking Arsenal’s inside lanes. His positioning in front of the center backs will decide how often Arsenal can find Gyökeres through the middle.

• Max Kilman and Konstantinos Mavropanos
  The center-back pair must clear first balls from corners and free kicks. Poor clearances invite the second-phase pressure that Arsenal thrive on.

Where the Game Tilts

Set plays shape the matchup. Arsenal’s routines have produced nine of their last fourteen league goals, with corners driving most of that return. Deliveries to the near post target Gabriel and Rice, and the second phase often brings a clean shot from the penalty spot. West Ham have struggled to clear their lines after the first contact. If that pattern repeats, the hosts can rack up chances without needing to slice through a set block.

Transitions down West Ham’s right are the away side’s best route. Bowen’s movement into the space behind Calafiori can flip the field in seconds, especially when Paquetá releases him early. Arsenal’s rest defense must keep one full back anchored and hold a midfielder in the wide lane to cut that supply. If those precautions hold, long balls toward Füllkrug become predictable and easier for William Saliba and Gabriel to manage.

Control in the middle will be visible in the rhythm of the game. Rice’s forward surges draw markers and open switches to Saka. Magassa aims to halt those carries and keep Arsenal in front of the block. If Rice breaks through repeatedly, West Ham’s shape collapses toward the box and concedes corners. If Magassa holds firm, the visitors stay compact and keep the score within range.

Loose balls around the box decide many Arsenal matches at the Emirates. Clearances that land just outside the penalty area feed a steady stream of shots and corners. West Ham must step out together to claim those scraps. If they sit too deep, the pressure becomes cumulative and the match tilts toward a two-goal cushion for the hosts.

Injury and Suspension Updates

• Arsenal
  Noni Madueke, Kai Havertz, Piero Hincapie, and Gabriel Jesus remain out. Arteta expects Gabriel Magalhães to be ready after a minor knock in midweek.

• West Ham
  Tomáš Souček serves the final match of his suspension. Aaron Wan-Bissaka could return from an abdominal issue. The rest of the group is available based on the last squad.

Statistical Breakdown

• Defensive baseline
  Arsenal rank first in the league for expected goals against per match at 0.65. That defensive platform matches the eye test. The back line allows few high-quality shots and wins the first contact in the box.

• Home vs away output
  Arsenal at home: 3.00 goals per match scored and 0.33 conceded across the current sample.
  West Ham away: 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded.

• Corners
  Arsenal generate high corner volume at home. A contextual sample shows around seven corners for per home match. West Ham concede a high number of corners away from home. That mix favors Arsenal on restarts and sustained pressure.

• Goal volume expectations
  Combined totals point to 3.00 goals per home game for Arsenal and 2.67 combined per match for West Ham’s away sample. League-wide models rate Arsenal as heavy favorites. One model assigns a 76.7 percent win probability to Arsenal, with 9.4 percent for West Ham and 13.9 percent for a draw.

• Recent finishing trends
  Nine of Arsenal’s last 14 league goals came via set plays. Seven were from corners, one from a direct free kick, and one from the spot. That single metric sets a clear theme for the preview and training focus.

• Player markers
  Gabriel has 18 Premier League goals for Arsenal since 2020, all from set plays. Saka sits on the brink of 200 league appearances at age 24. Jarrod Bowen has 11 goal involvements across his last 12 league games and five career goals against Arsenal.

• Discipline and clean sheets
  Arsenal’s home clean-sheet rate is strong through the small sample. West Ham’s away clean-sheet rate is limited, with both teams scoring present in half of their away games. West Ham concede first in a high share of away halves, which forces a deeper block and more corners conceded.

How Arsenal Can Control the Match

Arsenal’s game plan should begin on the right flank, where Martin Ødegaard and Bukayo Saka can create overloads before switching the play quickly to Riccardo Calafiori on the opposite side. This pattern forces West Ham’s midfield block to shift and opens room for early crosses or cutbacks into dangerous central areas. Corners of course are always a focus. By targeting Gabriel Magalhães with near-post runs and mixing delivery angles, Arsenal can generate repeat chances while keeping three players back to block counterattacks.

Defensively, Arsenal must stay alert to transitions. Calafiori’s forward surges leave space behind him that Jarrod Bowen loves to attack. Staggering the full backs so one always holds, and placing a midfielder in the passing lane to cut off Bowen, will limit West Ham’s outlet. Pressing Lucas Paquetá immediately after turnovers forces the visitors into long, hopeful clearances toward Niclas Füllkrug — an area where William Saliba and Gabriel excel. Starting fast matters; forcing corners and restarts early can disrupt West Ham’s defensive rhythm before it sets.

How West Ham Stay in the Game

For West Ham, survival hinges on structure. A compact 4-1-4-1 must hold the edge of the penalty area and keep Arsenal playing wide rather than slipping passes into the half spaces. The full backs should force Saka and Martinelli outside, cutting the lanes for low cutbacks. Magassa’s role as the single screen is critical to blocking Ødegaard and Rice from driving through midfield.

When the ball is won, the first action needs to be quick and direct. Paquetá must find Bowen early with diagonals into the channel behind Arsenal’s advanced left back, before the Gunners can rebuild their rest defense. Free kicks in the attacking third offer another route, as set pieces are West Ham’s best hope of disrupting Arsenal’s control. Just as vital is claiming second balls around the box. If West Ham clear only the first contact and drop too deep, Arsenal will recycle possession and create wave after wave of pressure.

Predicted Lineups

Arsenal
Raya;  Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Calafiori; Zubimendi, Rice, Ødegaard; Saka, Gyökeres, Eze.

West Ham
Areola; Walker-Peters, Mavropanos, Kilman, Diouf; Magassa; Bowen, Paquetá, Fernandes, Summerville; Füllkrug.

Prediction and Closing Thoughts

Arsenal bring the league’s best defensive xGA rate, strong home scoring, and a set-piece edge that matches a West Ham weakness. The visitors counter with an in-form Bowen, a compact new shape, and confidence from two straight wins at the Emirates. The early period is the danger zone for West Ham if Arsenal swarm and rack up corners. The late period is the danger zone for Arsenal if a low-scoring game drifts and one Bowen chance turns the narrative.

The numbers point one way. Home xG suppression at 0.65 per match, home scoring at three per match, and a heavy win probability from independent modeling place Arsenal in control. West Ham’s away record offers a path to resistance, but their concession profile invites the very pressure that Arsenal use to create set-piece spikes.

Prediction: Arsenal 2-0 West Ham.
One goal from open play after a sustained right-side attack. One goal from a corner.

Arsenal know what went wrong in the last two home meetings versus the Hammers. This team prevents chances at a league-leading rate and punishes from corners. If those traits show up again, the result should follow.