Match Preview: Arsenal v Everton; Which Arsenal Will Show Up?

Blunt and impotent. No, these are not words to discuss the Champion’s League loss to Monaco, even though they fit quite well. These are words to describe Arsenal when they last faced Everton back on Match Day 2 of the Premier League seasons.

If not for an 83^rd minute goal by Ramsey and a last minute “gasper” by Giroud, Everton would’ve secured all 3 points that day.  So out of sorts were Arsenal in the early going of the season that they didn’t muster their first shot on goal until the 68^th minute when Giroud forced Howard into a save.

Domestically, it looked like the teams would be gnawing at each other again for the coveted Champion’s League spot. However, early season fixtures are hardly a barometer to gauge a team. Everton now sit further down the table in 14^th and Arsenal are doing their normal flittering with the top 4. Arsenal have lost once at home in the league all season and have won 8 of their last 11 (8W 1D 2L).

What we don’t know is how Wednesday’s tie has affected the squad. If you’re honest with yourself it was as abject a home performance as you can remember. So if you are like some, you might be expecting Arsenal to be a little shell-shocked going into the match. Conversely, they could find their “minerals” and come out with an explosive performance. You truly can see it happening either way depending on your Arsenal world-view.

Arsenal have been very solid in the league at home. They’ve scored an average of 2.3 goals per game and are allowing just under 1 per game (0.9). However, they’ve now gone five games in a row without a win against Everton.

Roberto Martinez has come under fire this year for moving away from a resolute defense that combined with fluid play and the promise of some developing stars challenge for a spot in Europe’s elite. As he has put his stamp on Everton, they’ve become less rigid at the back and ironically the goals are drying up.  However, one thing he has proved very apt at is preparing for Arsenal.  The 3-0 drubbing of the Gunners was a plan well executed and for many it signaled that Everton were going to pip us to the Champion’s League spot. But Arsenal as they so often have shown, will only falter on their own, not when they are expected to.

The question for Arsene Wenger is how does he handle the immediate comeback from such a nightmarish loss as Wednesday’s? With another midweek tie looming, surely some changes could be forthcoming.

While, David Ospina has been a capable number 2, since the North London Derby he has looked ill at ease on the pitch. Prior to the Derby loss he looked calm and assured and now he just looks slightly off. The question is, has enough of a door been opened for Wenger to consider bringing Szczesny back in for league play. Frankly it’s a tossup.

I’m projecting a start for Gabriel if for any other reason than maybe Wenger gives Mertesacker a break – a physical and mental one. However, with the midweek tie, maybe the BFG plays today and takes off then. Again for me it’s a tossup but I am leaning heavily towards Gabriel (hence his name on our probable lineup.)

The other big call is on right wing. Danny Welbeck offers excellent defensive cover down that side. Theo Walcott is a threat going forward with his runs behind.  Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain gives you a little of both and does it quite well. If there is one knock, he like Jack Wilshere has a penchant for holding on to the ball a little too long.  Ox has just come back from injury but his cameo on Wednesday was a bright spot in a rather turgid affair.  We’re thinking it’s a go for Ox but wouldn’t be surprised if it’s Danny.

I don’t think Theo is going to start on the RW any time we play a team with a threat down that side.  At least not until Mathieu Debuchy comes back. I believe Wenger is opting for Danny in front of Bellerin because he offers additional cover over someone who was supposed to be spending more time studying the role from the bench. However strong a performance Hector has put in, we have to remember he still has weaknesses and the added cover is necessary.

Wenger was said to have made the team re-watch the Monaco video to stress how pissed off he was at their performance. Like all news from the dressing room and training ground this has to be taken with a grain of salt. Unless you are there what do we truly know? If true, Wenger must have wanted to know the dangers of having that kind of start this weekend.

I’ve been struggling on trying to think how this match is going to play out. The fact is I just don’t know. Our league run has been good of late, even with the losses. But as we are all too aware, a gut wrenching blow like Wednesday can have a lingering effect. So we’re taking a wait and see. I still think we’ll win it but like my calls on some of the questionable roster spots, if we lost, I could see that happen too. Ah, the joys of being an Arsenal supporter in this day and age.

Probable Lineups:

Click to enlarge

Injuries and Suspensions:
Arsenal: Flamini (hamstring), Ramsey (hamstring), Wilshere (ankle), Arteta (calf/ankle), Debuchy (shoulder), Diaby (calf)

Everton Atsu (illness), McGeady (kneer), Pienaar (knee), Hibbert (kneer), Oviedo (hamstringr), Barry (suspended – 2/2)

Head to Head:

Seasonal Statistics for Arsenal (home) and Everton (away)

Match Officals:
Referee:  Andre Mariner (11M, 42Y, 0R)
Assistant Referees: S Ledger, D Cann
Fourth Official: R Madley

Broadcast Information:
UK: BT Sport 14.05 GMT
US: NBC Sports Network 9:00 AM EST

YAMA Prediction:
Arsenal 2 – 1 Everton

Match Facts (Courtesy  Opta via FourFourTwo.com)

• Arsenal have now gone five games without a win against Everton, their worst such run in the history of this fixture.
• Steven Naismith has scored in his last two Premier League appearances against the Gunners.
• Everton have won none of their last 20 away matches against Arsenal in all competitions (D4 L16).
• Mesut Ozil has scored two goals and set up one more in three appearances against Everton in all competitions.
• Olivier Giroud has scored three goals in his last three games against Everton and six goals in his last eight Premier League starts overall.
• There were four goals scored from just five shots on target when Everton and Arsenal met back in August.
• Only Everton (17) and Swansea (16) have dropped more points from winning positions than Arsenal (14) in the Premier League this season.
• Santi Cazorla has had a hand in six goals in his last five Premier League games (three goals, three assists).
• Roberto Martinez’s side have won just one of their last 10 Premier League matches (W1 D4 L5).
• Arsenal have conceded just five first half goals in their last 18 Premier League games

What are your thoughts on this match? Can Arsenal  take all 3 points at home versus Everton? Who should start? What do you think the score will be? Let us know.