Can Arsenal Win the Premier League in 2025–26? A Fixture-Based Look at Their Title Chances
If Arsenal are going to end their long wait for a Premier League title, the 2025–26 season might be the clearest path yet. After three consecutive near-misses, Mikel Arteta’s side enters this campaign with a balanced, deep squad, tactical continuity, and a growing sense of unfinished business. But winning a title is never about talent alone. Timing, injuries, form, and perhaps most importantly, fixtures, all play a part.
To better understand Arsenal’s chances of going one better this season, we analyzed the club’s full 38-match league schedule and compared it to the other two likely title contenders: Liverpool and Manchester City. Using a tier-weighted Strength of Schedule (SOS) model, enhanced by timing and venue context, we broke the season into phases to determine where Arsenal might soar or stumble.
Let’s take a closer look at what Arsenal are up against.
What Arsenal’s 2025–26 Fixture List Tells Us
Arsenal open the season away at Manchester United, then host newly promoted Leeds United, followed by a trip to Anfield in just the third matchweek. That start, with two of their first three games on the road against top-half opposition, immediately puts the spotlight on early momentum.
Over the first eight matches (Matchweeks 1–8), which include clashes with Man City (home), Newcastle (away), and West Ham (home), Arsenal face the toughest start among the three main contenders. Using a tiered difficulty model, Arsenal’s average SOS in this early phase is 1.94, higher than both Liverpool (1.91) and Manchester City (1.81).
This isn’t just a trivia point. Teams that start strong are more likely to stay in contention. In the last five seasons, no eventual champion has collected fewer than 16 points in their first eight matches.
If Arsenal can survive this stretch with at least five wins, they’re in business. Anything less may require an extraordinary second half of the season.
Comparing the Midseason Grind
The middle stretch of the season, particularly the festive period between mid-December and early January, often separates deep squads from thin ones. This period includes congested scheduling, colder weather, and rotations that can expose lack of depth.
Arsenal’s holiday run (Matchweeks 17–20) includes home games against Aston Villa and Brighton, and an away trip to Everton. The average difficulty here is 1.81, slightly tougher than Manchester City (1.69) and significantly more demanding than Liverpool (1.19), who enjoy a favorable slate during this stretch.
From a fatigue and injury perspective, this phase is key. It also often overlaps with domestic cup obligations and European group stage transitions. Arsenal’s depth will be tested and possibly exposed more than their rivals in this stretch.
Post-Holiday Stretch: The Most Brutal Window?
The six-match stretch that follows the holidays (Matchweeks 21–26) is where things might get dicey. Arsenal will face Liverpool (home), Manchester United (home), and Tottenham (away) in quick succession.
Their average SOS during this stretch is 1.75, manageable, but both Liverpool (1.96) and Manchester City (2.00) have it harder. This is a window where Arsenal could potentially regain ground, assuming they’ve emerged from the holidays without serious injury concerns.
It’s also a stretch where Arsenal’s attacking depth, which has improved with the addition of midfield rotation and wide-forward options, could be crucial. Squad rotation isn’t optional in this part of the year. It’s survival.
Run-In: No Hiding in May
If the title race is tight come April, the run-in becomes everything. Arsenal’s final 12 matches (Matchweeks 27–38) average 1.71 in difficulty, putting them just behind Liverpool (1.75) and slightly ahead of City (1.73).
In other words, it’s level ground.
But the nuance is in the fixtures themselves. Arsenal play Manchester City away on April 18, then face Newcastle (home), Fulham (home), West Ham (away), Burnley (home), and Crystal Palace (away) to close the season. That’s not a murderer’s row, but trips to West Ham and a final day away at Palace are far from comfortable.
Liverpool, meanwhile, face Chelsea, Aston Villa, and Brentford in their final three. City finish with Brentford, Bournemouth, and Aston Villa, a deceptively soft stretch depending on how those teams are faring.
The key takeaway here? Arsenal’s fate may be in their own hands. But they’ll need to enter the final six matches ahead of the pack or with a buffer. Coming from behind will be difficult, especially with that visit to the Etihad looming.
How Arsenal Compare to Liverpool and Man City
Let’s step back and look at the numbers across the season phases:
| Phase | Arsenal Avg SOS | Liverpool Avg SOS | Man City Avg SOS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Start (MW 1–8) | 1.94 | 1.91 | 1.81 |
| Pre-Holiday (MW 9–16) | 1.59 | 1.72 | 1.56 |
| Holiday Crunch (MW17–20) | 1.81 | 1.19 | 1.69 |
| Post-Holiday (MW21–26) | 1.75 | 1.96 | 2.00 |
| Run-In (MW27–38) | 1.71 | 1.75 | 1.73 |
Overall, each team’s total SOS across the full season is roughly the same — 63 points under the tier-weighted system. But the distribution is where the story lies:
-
Arsenal face more early pressure and less cushion during the holidays.
-
Liverpool get a soft December but face a very tricky post-holiday stretch.
-
Manchester City are front-loaded with easier fixtures but hit turbulence from January through March.
In a title race where one or two results can swing the standings, these subtleties matter. Arsenal’s biggest vulnerability might be that early stretch. Their biggest opportunity? The pre-holiday and post-holiday phases, where Liverpool and City have it harder.
Final Thoughts: What Does This Mean for Arsenal?
Winning the Premier League is a high-wire act. It demands consistency, resilience, and the ability to turn good performances into three points, even when legs are tired and margins are thin. Arsenal were close in the last three seasons. But close doesn’t raise trophies.
Their 2025–26 schedule gives them a real shot, but only if they can weather the storm in the opening eight weeks.
The opportunity is there. The squad is mature. Needed additions have come in. The tactical identity is embedded. And if Arteta can rotate wisely through the holiday crunch, manage key away days with discipline, and keep his core players fit through March and April, there is no reason Arsenal can’t win the league.
It won’t come easy. But then again, titles never do.
Methodology: How We Calculated Strength of Schedule
To assess the strength of Arsenal’s 2025-2026 fixture list (and compare it to Liverpool and Manchester City), we developed a tier-based model grounded in the final 2024–25 Premier League standings.
Each opponent was assigned a difficulty weight based on their tier:
-
Tier 1 (3.0 pts): Liverpool, Arsenal, Man City, Chelsea
-
Tier 2 (2.0 pts): Newcastle, Aston Villa, Nottingham Forest, Brighton, Bournemouth, Brentford, Manchester United, Tottenham
-
Tier 3 (1.0 pts): Fulham, Crystal Palace, Everton, West Ham, Wolves
-
Tier 4 (0.5 pts): Leicester, Ipswich, Sunderland, Burnley, Leeds
We enhanced this base model with a home/away modifier:
-
+0.5 pts for away matches vs Tier 1 teams
-
+0.25 pts for away matches vs Tier 2 teams
Each club’s full fixture list was segmented into five seasonal phases:
-
Start (MW 1–8)
-
Pre-Holiday (MW 9–16)
-
Holiday Crunch (MW 17–20)
-
Post-Holiday (MW 21–26)
-
Run-In (MW 27–38)
We calculated total and average SOS within each phase, allowing for analysis of not just overall fixture difficulty, but when the toughest challenges occur.
This holistic approach gives a clearer view of where title races may be won or lost — not just by who you play, but when you play them.
