Liverpool vs Arsenal: Stats Pack

We have finally reached it; the halfway point of the season. The Arsenal Twittersphere is rife with debate, discussion, and general hobgobbery regarding our first campaign under Unai Emery.

Sitting fifth, two points outside of the top four, and on pace for a 76-point haul (13 more than last term) should show some measure of progression. Questions may still be asked about our defensive struggles, but everyone can agree we have not regressed.

The season did start things start poorly for Arsenal. Rough results against Manchester City and Chelsea was not an ideal start to the campaign. However, much-improved performances against Liverpool, Manchester United, and Tottenham showed progress. Equally important, it gave the fan base evidence of it.

A trip to Anfield today to kick-start the second act of the season will undoubtedly lay the framework for weeks to come. Perhaps there is no better side in the league currently to truly apply an acid test. Jürgen Klopp has done wonders on the red half of Stanley Park, potentially giving Liverpool a genuine chance to outgun Pep Guardiola and City to the title.

Liverpool and Arsenal: Hard Data

Overall Record:

Liverpool (1st) 19P – 16W – 3D – 0L; 43GF – 7GA – 51PTS

Arsenal (5th) 19P – 11W – 5D – 3L; 41GF – 25GA – 38PTS

Last Six Overall:

Liverpool; W-W-W-W-W-W (17GF – 2GA)

Arsenal; W-D-W-L-W-D (13GF – 9GA)

Home form (Liverpool) vs Away form (Arsenal):

Liverpool; D-W-W-W-W-W (14GF – 2GA)

Arsenal; W-D-W-D-L-D (14GF – 10GA)

Key Trends:

• Liverpool have kept a clean sheet at home in 78% of their fixtures; Arsenal have kept none in 0% of away matches
• Liverpool average 2.44 goals at Anfield, while Arsenal average 2.33 goals away from the Emirates
• Both teams have managed to score in 100% of the matches where Arsenal have been the away side
• Liverpool have bagged 22 goals at home while surrendering just 2; both goals coming at the end of the first and second halves
• Arsenal have never led at halftime away from home; Liverpool have never been down at the half

The Kolasinac Factor

Questions abound surrounding how we are to cope with our trip to Merseyside. Though we will see the return of both Shkodran Mustafi and Sokratis, Arsenal will be without both Henrick Mkhitaryan and Mesut Özil. The venerable David Ornstein put his much-anticipated stamp on the news that Özil didn’t travel with the squad while lending weight to the notion that his removal at halftime against Brighton was due to injury.

With the pair of creative fulcrums out of contention, many are left wondering what that means for our approach. Aaron Ramsey is still available and surely will start, and with Granit Xhaka’s likely re-deployment back into the midfield, one would assume that their contributions will be vital. But perhaps the unlikely option of Sead Kolasinac becoming our most important piece needs to be put forward.

Defending against Liverpool will undoubtedly be daunting. Kolasinac has improved in this area over last season it has to be said, though he is still far from perfect. We must consider, however, that defending against Klopp must feature some manner of defending further up the pitch. The fluidity of Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mané, and Roberto Firmino must be scuppered as often as possible at its source. Kolasinac’s tasking – should he be selected – will be as much offensive as it is on the other side of the ball.

At Current, the Bosnian international has the best xA (sum of expected goals from a player’s key passes) amongst all Arsenal players, including Özil. His 3.11 xA is also more than that of Ramsey and Xhaka combined (1.56 and 1.48). Though he has only registered two assists, many of our best chances this campaign has come from his marauding runs down the left. Not only will this occupy Trent Alexander Arnold effectively, but it could very well draw Liverpool’s right-sided attacking player into a more reserved posture to cope. Any success we have at Anfield will have to include contributions from the former Schalke man.

The first goal defines everything

It is a daunting enough task to go to Anfield under different circumstances. This season it is another animal. Arsenal undoubtedly must be at their very best if we are to take even a point off the leaders. Additional data does not bode well for us either.

Our away form has been relatively solid this season, and it certainly features goals at both ends; 21 goals for, 16 goals allowed in nine matches. In fact, our away outings have gifted the viewers an average of 4.11 goals per match this season, well above the league average of 2.85. Furthermore, 89% of our away-days have featured over 2.5 goals, also well above the league average; 56%. But the hard truth is that we have only played two of the leagues top ten at their ground. All our away success this season has come against bottom-half opposition. This is the concern.

When you consider how good Liverpool have been at home, one wonders if there will still be goals at both ends or if we struggle to create. Anfield has witnessed 2.67 goals per match this season in the league; 2.44 of those come from Liverpool. The data tells us that we have a 22% chance of scoring at Anfield this season. Not even City could achieve that feat. The question surely will be which gives first.

Any chance we have – at all – will likely rest on us finding the back of the net before Klopp’s troops get going. Coming back from a goal down at the Emirates is another animal entirely compared to trying to do the same – or worse – with The Kop pushing Liverpool forward. Score first, open them up and look to counter. Tried and tested; hopefully, it remains as such for our sake.

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