Newcastle vs Arsenal Match Preview: Can the Gunners Break the St James’ Curse?

Arsenal return to St James’ Park on Sunday for a fixture that has become a genuine test of nerve. Newcastle United have turned their ground into a demanding venue for visiting sides, and recent Arsenal teams have felt that weight. Mikel Arteta’s group arrive five points off Liverpool, fresh from a late leveller against Manchester City and a steady cup win in midweek. The brief is plain: take control of a difficult away day, find a cleaner attacking edge, and keep the title chase on track.

This preview brings together the best available reporting and numbers to set the stage: recent head-to-head, current form, tactical themes, players who shape the contest, and a reasoned prediction. Target keywords appear naturally throughout: Newcastle United vs Arsenal match preview, Arsenal Premier League, and Arsenal news.

Head-to-head context

• Newcastle have won the last three home games against Arsenal in all competitions,

• Under Arteta, only Manchester City away has brought more defeats than visits to Newcastle.

• Across the last five meetings at St James’ Park in league and cup: NUFC 4 wins, Arsenal 1 win, aggregate 6–2 to Newcastle.

• Arsenal did beat Newcastle at the Emirates in May with Declan Rice deciding a tight game, and edged a summer friendly by a single goal.

The trend is clear: Arsenal often control long stretches, yet Newcastle find ways to keep the game narrow and seize the key moment. Set-piece duels, second balls around the box, and transitions down Arsenal’s left channel have swung several of those contests.

Current form & momentum

Newcastle United

• League run: one win in seven, with three draws and three defeats.

• Goals: only three scored in five league matches; four clean sheets.

• Defensive metrics: fewest shots faced in the division and the lowest expected goals against; structure has held up even when the attack stalls.

• Cup bounce: a 4–1 midweek win over Bradford lifted the mood, yet open-play chance creation remains the big question.

Eddie Howe’s side have defended with clarity in both a back four and a back five. The press flips between full-court intensity and a compact mid-block. Off the ball they look secure; on it they are recalibrating after Alexander Isak’s sale, with Nick Woltemade learning the league and Anthony Gordon returning from suspension.

Arsenal

• League run: three wins, one draw, one defeat.

• Defence: joint-best goals against; William Saliba back alongside Gabriel has restored the first-choice axis.

• Attack: sixth in xG overall, yet a modest share from open play. The equaliser against City came from a direct ball over the top, then a composed finish.

• Cup: efficient 2–0 at Port Vale with Eberechi Eze scoring his first goal for the club and Bukayo Saka getting useful minutes.

The theme around Arsenal is control without consistent incision in open play. Set pieces and direct runs into space have carried more threat than slow, patient circulation around settled blocks.

Tactical preview

Newcastle are expected to start in a 4-3-3 that often shifts into a 5-4-1 when they defend deep. If Eddie Howe fields both Kieran Trippier and Tino Livramento, one tends to stay tucked while the other pushes forward; when only Trippier plays, he becomes the early diagonal outlet. In midfield, Bruno Guimarães, Sandro Tonali, and Joelinton give Newcastle bite and ball-winning power, with one regularly stepping toward Declan Rice to disrupt Arsenal’s build-up.

Arsenal will also line up in a 4-3-3, building play from David Raya behind a back four of Jurrien Timber, William Saliba, Gabriel, and Riccardo Calafiori. Mikel Arteta has options in midfield: Rice and Martín Zubimendi set the base, while Mikel Merino or a fit-again Martin Ødegaard could join to add either duels or creativity; Eberechi Eze is another candidate if Arteta wants a more direct dribbler. Up front, Viktor Gyökeres leads the line with Bukayo Saka locked on the right and Gabriel Martinelli running the left. Arsenal’s tempo can swing quickly. They are comfortable inviting pressure with short passes, but can just as easily go long into the channels for Gyökeres and Martinelli.

Much of the match will hinge on how Newcastle’s compact mid-block handles Arsenal’s deliberate “lure” in possession. Arteta’s centre-backs will often hold the ball to tempt a forward press before slipping it to a free midfielder and driving play forward; Newcastle aim to stay narrow and cut off that central feed, and if Arsenal linger too long the crowd’s noise can spark a full press. Down Arsenal’s right, Saka’s combinations with Eze or Ødegaard will probe the inside-right channel behind Newcastle’s left-back, especially if Lewis Hall starts there, and Calafiori or Rice may look to switch early into that space.

Set pieces could prove decisive in what is likely a low-margin game. Newcastle flood the six-yard area with outswinging deliveries and second-phase strikes, while Arsenal have been strong in first contact through Gabriel and Saliba and add the threat of Rice’s edge-of-box shooting. Transitions on Arsenal’s own left will be another key moment: Calafiori steps into midfield in settled play, leaving space for Anthony Gordon to counter if Martinelli and Rice are not quick to cover. Newcastle may also push a second runner such as Elanga or Murphy into that channel to create overloads.

Finally, the pressing dynamic will shape the opening. Howe sometimes unleashes an aggressive high press in the first ten minutes or after a big crowd surge, while at other times he keeps a compact shell to choke central progression. Arteta’s goalkeeper distribution choices, going long toward Gyökeres for knockdowns to Rice or playing short to bait Tonali and play around the corner to Saka, will signal Arsenal’s intent. The first few minutes should reveal which press versus build pattern defines the night.

Key players to watch

Arsenal

• Bukayo Saka — one goal involvement from a century in the Premier League for Arsenal. He unlocks compact blocks by varying his angles: underlap with Timber, switch-and-go with Eze, or an early shot across goal. Tracking his duel with Hall/Livramento is central to the away side’s chance creation.

• Declan Rice — the metronome and the emergency brake. Newcastle love second balls; Rice’s reading of those bounces decides territory. His late arrivals at the edge of the box have hurt Newcastle before.

• Eberechi Eze — immediate lift against City and a goal in midweek. Receives on the half-turn, plays lofted passes into Martinelli’s run, and slips early reverse balls to Saka. If Ødegaard is ready for a bench role, Eze likely starts; if the captain starts, Eze may rotate to the left.

• William Saliba — minimal fuss, maximum control. Woltemade relies on early crosses and near-post runs; Saliba’s body position and Gabriel’s aggression must stay clean to avoid cheap free-kicks around the box.

• Viktor Gyökeres — presses centre-backs relentlessly and loves the ball slid into the inside-left channel. Arsenal’s more direct slant is built for his movement. One clear breakaway could define the night.

Newcastle United

• Anthony Gordon — back from suspension and still chasing his first league goal of the campaign despite decent xG. Carries at speed, draws fouls, and can pin Arsenal’s left side.

• Bruno Guimarães — beats pressure and progresses quickly into wide areas. If Newcastle escape the first press through him, Trippier’s early cross or a wall pass to Tonali follows.

• Sandro Tonali — pace-setting in tight spaces; times late arrivals into the box. Arsenal must block his shooting lanes from the D.

• Kieran Trippier — leader in delivery volume. Switches to the back post test Arsenal’s far-side winger and full-back compactness.

• Nick Woltemade — big target who thrives on early service; less comfortable when asked to combine with back-to-goal under pressure.

Injury and squad notes

Newcastle United

• Available again: Anthony Gordon (suspension served).

• Out/Unlikely: Yoane Wissa (knee), Jacob Ramsey (ankle). Fabian Schär suffered a recent concussion; selection will depend on protocol clearance.

• Likely XI: Pope; Trippier, Thiaw, Burn, Livramento/Hall; Tonali, Bruno, Joelinton; Elanga/Murphy, Woltemade, Gordon.

Arsenal

• Back in the mix: Bukayo Saka built minutes in the cup and trained well. Martin Ødegaard has trained and pushes for involvement.

• Out/Unlikely: Noni Madueke (knee, weeks), Gabriel Jesus (knee), Kai Havertz (knee), Piero Hincapié (hamstring). Mikel Merino and Gyökeres took knocks last week and were managed; both expected to be available.

• Likely XI: Raya; Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Calafiori; Rice, Zubimendi, Eze/Ødegaard; Saka, Gyökeres, Martinelli.

Squad choices will reveal Arteta’s risk appetite. A three of Rice–Zubimendi–Ødegaard tilts toward control plus craft. A three of Rice–Zubimendi–Merino adds height and duels but leaves creativity for the wings. Eze gives a balanced route: carry, slip passes, and set-piece threat.

Statistical insights

From league data through five matchweeks:

• Arsenal: 10 points, two goals conceded, sixth for total xG, mid-table for open-play xG. Away points per game at 1.50 so far this season; over the last 16 league away fixtures they’ve lost just once.

• Newcastle: four clean sheets from five; fewest shots faced (high-end defensive control). Shot conversion near the bottom of the league. Open-play xG sits around 3.0 through five matches, mirroring the low scoring return.

• Probability models: Arsenal sit near 45% win likelihood; Newcastle around 30%; the draw just under a quarter.

• Soccer-stats trendlines: Arsenal’s PPG total 2.00 vs Newcastle’s 1.20 through five; Arsenal’s clean-sheet rate 60%, Newcastle 60% as well. Both teams show low “both teams to score” profiles.

• First-goal leverage: Newcastle’s points per game when conceding first dips sharply; Arsenal’s record when scoring first is strong. The opening goal swings the match state more than most fixtures.

All of this points to a narrow scoreline with long passages of control, few high-value chances, and a premium on restarts.

How Arsenal can tilt it

1. Punch early diagonals to Gyökeres and Martinelli. Force the back line to turn, then flood second balls with Rice and Zubimendi.

2. Let Saka dictate rhythm on the right. Quick give-and-go with Eze or Ødegaard, then either the cut-back or the far-post clip to Martinelli.

3. Protect the left-side transition. Martinelli must track Gordon; Rice covers the inside-left pocket when Calafiori steps in.

4. Defend set plays with discipline. No loose holds, win first contact, and clear beyond the arc where Tonali waits.

5. Manage momentum. St James’ Park loves chaos. Short, calm passing sequences after Newcastle spikes the noise prevent the snowball.

How Newcastle can hurt Arsenal

• Early press window. Ten frantic minutes to chase a mistake in Arsenal’s third and lift the crowd.

• Overloads vs Calafiori. Gordon and a right-sider attacking the same lane to isolate Arsenal’s left-back.

• Trippier’s delivery. Near-post darts for Woltemade; far-post hangs toward Dan Burn.

• Central steals. Tonali stepping onto Zubimendi to spring a direct counter into the channels.

Prediction & closing thoughts

Both teams defend well and value structure. Newcastle’s attack has not settled, but the return of Gordon, the presence of Joelinton’s power, and Trippier’s service give them enough to ask awkward questions. Arsenal bring the cleaner platform, a deeper bench of match-winners, and a more flexible plan for direct attacks when the game opens.

The first goal often decides this tie on Tyneside. Arsenal’s best route to it is simple: win the ball in midfield, hit Saka early, and draw a cut-back toward Gyökeres or a trailing Rice. Newcastle’s clearest path is a restart or a transition down Arsenal’s left.

Forecast: Newcastle United 0-1 Arsenal.
A single moment from Saka or Rice edges a tight contest where both keepers see long stretches without serious work. The clean-sheet trend lines, the low shot volumes against these defences, and Arsenal’s improved game-state management on the road point that way.